'This Is It' No Thriller At The Box Office...

The potential seemed incredible, almost limitless.  How much could This Is It (JACKO) bring in?  $100 million in 5 days...$200 million...More? It would outdraw some major blockbusters of the past few years. Harry Potter, Transformers, Lord of the Rings, Spiderman, The Dark Knight, all would bow to the King of Pop (Mr. Jackson if you're nasty). Nevermind that the top grossing concert film of all time, showcasing a major star with current hits, only managed to bring in $65.2 million during its run on the silver screen.  By the way, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour kills the next closest concert film, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience, which managed an unimpressive $19.1 million in box office revenue.  Look past the fact that Michael had not scored a #1 since 1995 with the single "You are not alone".  The spectacle that has been his untimely demise would carry this mashed together collection of rehearsal footage to levels beyond the wildest imagination.

This weekend all of those lofty predictions proved to be as over-hyped as... well...everything else is these days.  With the weekend wrapping up, estimates put the box office at around $32 million for the first 5 days of release.  JACKO has seen a large decline in value, and is currently priced just a few dollars over the original ICO offering price of $90.

Everything else being said, This is It is still on pace to dethrone Ms. Cyrus from her box office throne.  Impressive for certain.  But, let this be a lesson when speculating on concert films.  For all the hype, they rarely turn in the big office numbers that are thrown around by studio execs, record producers, and uber fans.

Our friend, Nikki, at Deadline Hollywood has the top 10 weekend box office estimates as follows:

   1. This Is It (Sony) New $20.7M Wkd [3,481 runs] $32M Cume
   2. Paranormal Activity (Paramount) Week 6 $16.5M Wkd [2,404] $82.5M Cume
   3. Law Abiding Citizen (Overture) Week 4 $2.6M Sat [2,764] $6.7M Wkd
   4. Couples Retreat (Universal) Week 5 $2.2M Sat [3,026] $6M Wkd
   5. Saw VI (Lionsgate) $2.0M Sat [3,036] $5M Wkd (-65%)
   6. Where The Wild Things Are (WB) Week 3 $1.6M Sat [3,645] $4.8M Wkd
   7. The Stepfather (Sony) $1.1M Fri (-47%) [2,346] $3.5M Wkd
   8. Astro Boy (Imagi/Summit) $997K Fri (-45%) [3,020] $4M Wkd
   9. The Vampire's Assistant (Uni) $978K Fri (-56%) [2,754] $3M Wkd
  10. Amelia (Fox Searchlight) $958K Fri (-28%) [1,070] $2.7M Wkd