CAROL Takes The Weekend

Hi again,
Nikki over at Deadline Hollywood has the weekend numbers.  Even at #1 A Christmas Carol (CAROL) didn't open to expectations, bringing in just around $31 million for the  weekend.  Given the competition next weekend and that parents of the little kiddies (who this should be targeted to) are worried the flick may be a bit dark, it is doubtful CAROL will be able to hold that top spot as well.

Overall, this weekend must be considered a bit of a disappointment given the calibre of stars that appeared in the newest batch of movies to  debut.  Is it the soft economy keeping folks away from the box office, or just a lack of really appealing films?  Your thoughts?

'This Is It' No Thriller At The Box Office...

The potential seemed incredible, almost limitless.  How much could This Is It (JACKO) bring in?  $100 million in 5 days...$200 million...More? It would outdraw some major blockbusters of the past few years. Harry Potter, Transformers, Lord of the Rings, Spiderman, The Dark Knight, all would bow to the King of Pop (Mr. Jackson if you're nasty). Nevermind that the top grossing concert film of all time, showcasing a major star with current hits, only managed to bring in $65.2 million during its run on the silver screen.  By the way, Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour kills the next closest concert film, Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience, which managed an unimpressive $19.1 million in box office revenue.  Look past the fact that Michael had not scored a #1 since 1995 with the single "You are not alone".  The spectacle that has been his untimely demise would carry this mashed together collection of rehearsal footage to levels beyond the wildest imagination.

This weekend all of those lofty predictions proved to be as over-hyped as... well...everything else is these days.  With the weekend wrapping up, estimates put the box office at around $32 million for the first 5 days of release.  JACKO has seen a large decline in value, and is currently priced just a few dollars over the original ICO offering price of $90.

Everything else being said, This is It is still on pace to dethrone Ms. Cyrus from her box office throne.  Impressive for certain.  But, let this be a lesson when speculating on concert films.  For all the hype, they rarely turn in the big office numbers that are thrown around by studio execs, record producers, and uber fans.

Our friend, Nikki, at Deadline Hollywood has the top 10 weekend box office estimates as follows:

   1. This Is It (Sony) New $20.7M Wkd [3,481 runs] $32M Cume
   2. Paranormal Activity (Paramount) Week 6 $16.5M Wkd [2,404] $82.5M Cume
   3. Law Abiding Citizen (Overture) Week 4 $2.6M Sat [2,764] $6.7M Wkd
   4. Couples Retreat (Universal) Week 5 $2.2M Sat [3,026] $6M Wkd
   5. Saw VI (Lionsgate) $2.0M Sat [3,036] $5M Wkd (-65%)
   6. Where The Wild Things Are (WB) Week 3 $1.6M Sat [3,645] $4.8M Wkd
   7. The Stepfather (Sony) $1.1M Fri (-47%) [2,346] $3.5M Wkd
   8. Astro Boy (Imagi/Summit) $997K Fri (-45%) [3,020] $4M Wkd
   9. The Vampire's Assistant (Uni) $978K Fri (-56%) [2,754] $3M Wkd
  10. Amelia (Fox Searchlight) $958K Fri (-28%) [1,070] $2.7M Wkd

Weekend Predictions

Sorry, it has been a long and crazy week with not much to report on.  Just to keep things moving, here is a quick update for the weekend flicks.

Deadline Hollywood has the weekend predictions based on the Friday box office numbers.  It looks like a difficult weekend for all of the movies in their first week.

Weekend Top 5 Estimates...

Deadline Hollywood has posted the weekend estimates. Here are the top 5....

1. Where the Wild Things Are (WILD) - $33 million (New)
2. Law Abiding Citizen (LACTZ) - $21 million (New)
3. Paranormal Activity- $20 million ($33.5 cumulative)
4. Couples Retreat (CPLRT)- $18.5 million ($63.9 cumulative)
5. Stepfather (STPFT) - $11.5 million (New)

Depending on the legs of the 3 new movies, that gives LACTZ (currently trading at $52.75) and STPFT ($27.00) a little upside if you go by the HSX delist predictor of weekend box office x 2.7 formula.  I personally go with a litle higher multiplier when making predictions. 

It would appear that WILD ($107.00) is a little over-valued at its current price, but it may be able to keep its legs for another week or two if Astro Boy (ASBOY) doesn't steal away too much of the coveted PG, family rated, crowd .

CPLRT ($77.00) saw a 47% drop from its freshman weekend and it may be tough to bring in the remaining box office receipts needed to hit that number.

Coming up short...

Well, I have made a few trades with my practice account.  I don't know why, but I seemed to have found myself seeing everything as over-valued. Other than WILD, I seem to have shorted everything else. My port is taking a beating this morning, though. Apparently others see value where I don't.

What is the Cantor Exchange?

Hi everyone,
The Cantor Exchange (CX) is basically a stock market for movies. It is based on a popular internet stock market simulator known as the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). Unlike the HSX, CX isn't a simulator. Investors will essentially buy shares (referred to as Domestic Box Office Receipt Futures) in domestic movies using real U.S. dollars.

I have been a long time HSX player, with a portfolio ranked in the top 1,000. I am curiously hopeful about this new investment vehicle. Time will tell if it will gain enough investors to survive. I plan to use this blog to share my thoughts on the market.

I am also in the process of creating a new website Movie Market Exchange (MMX) that will provide tools and resources for traders. If there are any individuals interested in helping me create tools, or writing a column please e-mail me at moviemarketexchange@yahoo.com.

It Pays To Practice...

Now through December 31st, that is true. The site is about to go live, and they are basically paying you to test their engines. Sign up for a practice account and get $10,000 to play around with. At the end of the promo they will cash out your portfolio at a rate of $10 per $1000. The max payout is $100. For details and to start trading go to their site.

http://www.cantorexchange.com/getdoc/37790d6f-7888-4d19-b18f-fc0b3b86ade2/It-Pays-to-Practice.aspx